Topix Futures advanced production release char callback risk ca1290

Topix Futures: advanced production release char callback risk NDRC called major coal enterprises in coal prices rose too fast starting inhibition plan: development and Reform Commission invited the Shenhua coal and other responsible person in charge of 24 coal enterprises in coal production as well as Shanxi, Shaanxi and other provinces in charge of the coal industry workers held a meeting in Beijing on September 8th, to convey on the stability of coal supply, coal prices had inhibition the rapid rise in plan and deployment of related work. Prior to the market has been rumored to resume production capacity of 330 working days basically no suspense. Although the 1 tons of production capacity after the release and can not reverse the pattern of supply and demand, but the market risk is that: 1) there may be panic downwards; the main contract market charts (coal) main contract market charts (Jiao Mei) the main contract market trend (Figure 2) coke) power plant after the season replenishment efforts or the drop in demand will slow, aggravate the degree; 3) only advanced capacity recovery supply to increase the difficulty of monitoring, supply the magnitude of release may exceed expectations. Therefore, we expect that this news in the short term or will bring the price of coal down, investors need to be cautious. Investment advice: in previous reports we have stressed that this year due to rising coal prices is pushing up the 276 policies rather than to capacity. But due to the negative impact of the supply fell too fast and the supply structure distortion caused by coal is likely to be late season supply change point. We maintain the steam coal, coking coal, the "shock" rating, although the advanced capacity release has been partially digested by the market, but the short-term coke prices still have lower risk. The main contract is expected to shock range of 460-530 yuan per ton, 800-980 yuan, 850-1350 yuan tons. Risk warning: the advanced level of production release significantly exceeds or is less than expected, coal prices fell sharply or continue to be strong. 1, the NDRC called major coal enterprises to start curb prices rising too fast or short-term plan, coal bearing came news last night, the Commission invited the Shenhua coal and other responsible person in charge of 24 coal enterprises in coal production as well as Shanxi, Shaanxi and other provinces in charge of the coal industry workers held a meeting in Beijing in September 8th, about the stability of the coal supply and suppress prices fast rising plan and deployment of related work. Prior to the market has been rumored to resume production capacity of 330 working days basically no suspense. The possibility of the existence of possible changes in the main plan is to release the supply of advanced capacity or batch release, which remains to be further confirmed the results of the meeting. But we expect that if the release of batches of supply will exist between the interests of the distribution of enterprises, the probability of a one-time release of supply will be relatively large. According to previous market news, has been reported to the scale of advanced production capacity of about 5-6 million tons, if recovered from 276 working days to 330 working days, the release of annual production capacity of about 1 to about 100 million tons. If in accordance with the first half of coal production 16 tons, consumption of 18 tons, imports of more than 100 million tons to calculate the annual supply and demand gap of about 2 tons in about 1.08. 1 tons of production capacity to make up for the gap between supply and demand gap may be insufficient.相关的主题文章: